‘The Situation is Dire’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's homes.

As military actions on Iran hinder energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing crowds outside LPG distributors across Indian cities and towns as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply cannot be found," says a official of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the shortages are now being felt across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in the capital, many in the southern states. People are turning to traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep food preparation going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, local news say up to a significant portion of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their cylinder inventory have depleted with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and no food items - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers observe a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Government Stance

Yet, the authorities insists there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and authorities say supplies are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.

The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for household consumption, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been sparked by false reports. The standard supply timeline for household cylinders remains about under three days," says a government spokesperson.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the anxiety is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "Anxiety is palpable," the text reads.

According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly offset by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a sector expert.

Based on vessel tracking and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The real vulnerability is kitchen fuel, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.

Refineries can adjust processes to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through diversification. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of hoarding.

An industry representative states opportunistic profiteering.

"Suppliers are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next gas canister.