Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.