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Just two days before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – not just the winner overall, but block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

How was your night?

It was necessary because they were adding around 200,000 votes into the system every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani led the early vote by 12 points, but there were two big batches of ballots that came in after that and his lead went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for him, where the opponent was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However the winner added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that the left long aimed for: multiracial, young, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously went for the progressive now. But it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the night was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured we might go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to get over 50%. He’s at 50.4% but remain probably 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think certain, but I think probable, and I wish he does because afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained many conservatives on the island with a high participation. I think occurred significant tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened prior to Trump endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there was some opposition. But no, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So I don’t know if there were major surprises on this one, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key figures from progressives come from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see more of that – people will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that every city in America can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.