Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Drop Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, According to Official Figures

The mean count of daily murders per month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new official statistics. Nevertheless, security analysts have advised that murder numbers could fail to signal enhanced national stability.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This data was delivered by the chief of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we’ve had over these months is extremely important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that the previous month the smallest figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Violent drug cartel rivalries, combined with the administration's highly military operations to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x greater than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security approach for an apparently more pronounced reduction in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced collaboration between various agencies.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

However, public safety analysts urged caution that relying on homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is particularly true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be very good news if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not reliable for assessing the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the will to properly recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was similarly an issue because it could obscure days when there were particularly elevated numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day average renders surges of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the government can highlight the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by severe bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst said.